Colombia
Defying the gun
Oct 25th 2007 BOGOTÁFrom The Economist print edition
A health check for local democracy
LAST time Colombians voted for mayors and provincial governors, in 2003, some were offered little choice. In swathes of the Caribbean coastal region right-wing paramilitary groups imposed their own candidates, often by intimidating rivals into giving up, or killing those who resisted. Will the next lot of local polls, due on October 28th, be free and fair?
The signs are fairly promising. Take the department of Magdalena, on the north coast. The governor elected unopposed in 2003 is behind bars, charged with colluding with paramilitaries. This time voters can choose from six candidates spanning the political spectrum. In Colombia as a whole, there are 12% more candidates this time. True, in 11 municipalities (down from 25 last time) there is only one candidate. But a survey by El Tiempo, a newspaper, found that this owed more to local political tradition than intimidation.
In many areas, people are less scared than they were. That is in part a tribute to President Álvaro Uribe's “democratic security” policy. Some 31,000 paramilitaries have demobilised under a peace agreement. In addition, prosecutors and the courts have cracked down on ties between politicians and the paramilitaries (many of whom are also drug traffickers). Some 40 politicians, including national legislators (one of them Mr Uribe's cousin) as well as Magdalena's governor, are being prosecuted for such links.
Several of the small parties whose leaders face prosecution are fielding candidates, but some of these may have gone straight. There is “less armed pressure” in areas that were once paramilitary fiefs, according to Claudia López, a political scientist who has studied voting patterns in such areas.
Nevertheless, two dozen candidates have been killed in the run-up to the election. At least half were victims of the FARC, the main left-wing guerrilla group (which is also heavily involved in drugs). In the past the FARC banned voting in areas it controlled; the murders show it can no longer do so, says Ms López. In other areas there are worries about former paramilitaries having taken up arms again in criminal bands.
The opinion polls suggest a moderate left party may hang on to the capital, Bogotá, defeating Mr Uribe's candidate for mayor. But most of those who vote will do so according to local issues. Rather than a guide to the president's future prospects, the elections will be an indicator of the health of Colombia's democracy.
Defying the gun
Oct 25th 2007 BOGOTÁFrom The Economist print edition
A health check for local democracy
LAST time Colombians voted for mayors and provincial governors, in 2003, some were offered little choice. In swathes of the Caribbean coastal region right-wing paramilitary groups imposed their own candidates, often by intimidating rivals into giving up, or killing those who resisted. Will the next lot of local polls, due on October 28th, be free and fair?
The signs are fairly promising. Take the department of Magdalena, on the north coast. The governor elected unopposed in 2003 is behind bars, charged with colluding with paramilitaries. This time voters can choose from six candidates spanning the political spectrum. In Colombia as a whole, there are 12% more candidates this time. True, in 11 municipalities (down from 25 last time) there is only one candidate. But a survey by El Tiempo, a newspaper, found that this owed more to local political tradition than intimidation.
In many areas, people are less scared than they were. That is in part a tribute to President Álvaro Uribe's “democratic security” policy. Some 31,000 paramilitaries have demobilised under a peace agreement. In addition, prosecutors and the courts have cracked down on ties between politicians and the paramilitaries (many of whom are also drug traffickers). Some 40 politicians, including national legislators (one of them Mr Uribe's cousin) as well as Magdalena's governor, are being prosecuted for such links.
Several of the small parties whose leaders face prosecution are fielding candidates, but some of these may have gone straight. There is “less armed pressure” in areas that were once paramilitary fiefs, according to Claudia López, a political scientist who has studied voting patterns in such areas.
Nevertheless, two dozen candidates have been killed in the run-up to the election. At least half were victims of the FARC, the main left-wing guerrilla group (which is also heavily involved in drugs). In the past the FARC banned voting in areas it controlled; the murders show it can no longer do so, says Ms López. In other areas there are worries about former paramilitaries having taken up arms again in criminal bands.
The opinion polls suggest a moderate left party may hang on to the capital, Bogotá, defeating Mr Uribe's candidate for mayor. But most of those who vote will do so according to local issues. Rather than a guide to the president's future prospects, the elections will be an indicator of the health of Colombia's democracy.
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